Brilliant Mistakes

As the title implies, author Paul J.H. Schoemaker argues in his new book Brilliant Mistakes: Finding Success on the Far Side of Failure that there are such things as brilliant mistakes -- errors that actually have welcome and positive consequences that far outweigh their costs -- and that therefore people should actually welcome making more mistakes.

I am not entirely certain that the book is successful in this regard. But I can say with complete confidence that it is successful for other perhaps more valuable reasons.

Mistakes are often regarded as such depending on outcomes: a decision is considered wrong or ill-fated to the extent that it does not yield the desired result. Notwithstanding this, we know that sometimes a mistake's unintended consequences can be invaluable, and for much more than the learning experience. Whether it's the erroneous assumption that allows us to build otherwise grand and for the most part accurate theories, or mistakes that bring to our attention the previously undiscovered, there is no denying that some mistakes actually turn out for the best. For this reason, Schoemaker argues that mistakes shouldn't be defined from the outcomes that ensue from a decision but instead by the process that gives rise to the mistake in the process.

Hence, in Brilliant Mistakes, a mistake is defined as any sub-optimal decision given the available information at hand. Such a definition is rooted firmly in decision theory and clearly has a process-oriented bent. Schoemaker acknowledges that such a definition seems counterintuitive, and goes to some lengths to help readers appreciate the insights that may be gleaned from viewing mistakes in this manner. But he falls short of making a thoroughly convincing case. Perhaps at the root of this difficulty is the inherently problematic nature of the definition that he proposes, as the notion of what is "sub-optimal" is often a matter of perception and open to too much interpretation. Indeed, it would seem that Schoemaker himself falls into this trap in his own book, discussing the merits of engineering deliberate mistakes despite it not being clear why the decisions undertaken in the situations he describes are mistakes (as he defines them).

Yet this lapse is easy enough to forgive: say what one will about whether Brilliant Mistakes succeeds at elaborating on its eponymous subject, there is no denying it is a valuable book about decision-making and decision theory.

In fact, I would submit that this is what Schoemaker really intended to write, as enamored as he may be with the notion of the "brilliant mistake". Cast in this light, Brilliant Mistakes succeeds as a reader for making better decisions. It offers an erudite and concise discussion on decision theory, drawing on insights from behavioral economics and similar fields in order to describe a useful paradigm and practical environment for good decision-making. Ultimately, when framed in this manner it is easy to see how the notion of the brilliant mistake ties into the underlying discussion on decision theory. After all, a good decision-making process is one that not only limits the probability of making a mistake, but at the same time minimizes the possible costs that might arise should they occer as well as maximizes the efficacy of learning from them. This is precisely where the value of Schoemaker's book lies. When all is said and done, Schoemaker does make a convincing case for why we shouldn't be afraid to make mistakes -- because he effectively conveys what constitutes good decisions.

Thus, I feel that those reading Brilliant Mistakes may not be too enamored about the concept of the brilliant mistake, but will certainly come away from the book enthused about learning much about decision theory.

Unless, of course, I happen to be mistaken.

[Brilliant Mistakes will be published by Wharton Press on 8 November 2011. This review is based on a pre-publication proof obtained through NetGalley.]